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2018 Formula 1 season preview: Part 1 - The Frontrunners

Writer's picture: Andrew ZarbAndrew Zarb


With the start of the 2018 Formula 1 season fast approaching, here on Zarb times, we shall preview the upcoming season, starting with the 3 frontrunners: Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull. Mercedes Go into the 2018 season as the defending champions, both in terms of the constructors' championship, as well as the drivers' championship with driver Lewis Hamilton seeking to defend the crown he won in 2017. Having said that, it could be very validly argued that Mercedes did not have the best car in 2017, and certainly not all that consistent - they evidently struggled on low-grip circuits, such as Monaco, Hungary and Singapore (fine, they won that race but through massive fortune as that should have been a sure Ferrari win). Arguably, one factor which was a cause of their struggles was their long wheelbase design, which they have retained this year. Toto Wolff famously labelled their car a "diva" last year, however, based on pre-season testing, the handling of this year's car looks to be much better, with James Allison (Technical Director) saying: "It has been reliable, it has been predictable, it doesn't overheat, it has been pretty well balanced". With regards to reliability, he certainly cannot be questioned, during testing the team racked up the most laps of any team, the only team for that matter to exceed a total of 1000 laps during testing. Actually, in testing they set only the 7th-quickest outright lap time of all teams, however, testing can be very misleading as we do not know fuel loads, etc. - Mercedes clearly did not prioritise (if put any focus on) low-fuel, qualifying-style runs and were more focused on long run pace, and they looked strongest. Can Mercedes claim their 5th constructors' title in a row, and they can lead Hamilton to a 5th world championship and equal the great Juan Manuel Fangio for world championships (Fangio has 5)? On the evidence so far they can definitely make a strong case for both and they are arguably the favourites. All will be revealed in the next 8 months though. Ferrari 2017 was a year in which Ferrari made a considerable step forward compared to 2016. It still was not enough to topple the Mercedes dominance, however, although as I mentioned earlier you could make a strong case that they had the most consistent car and it was a better handling car compared to Mercedes. Ultimately, what let them down, however, was reliability, especially towards the end of the season when their engine let them down (notably Vettel), notwithstanding also driver error played a part, with the collision of Baku with Lewis Hamilton and the Singapore start crash. This year Ferrari has elected to go with a longer wheelbase, more in-line with Mercedes' philosophy, though will it work? During testing, they racked up considerable mileage, a total of 929 laps. They also set the fastest time of the test, albeit it is worth considering that neither Mercedes nor Red Bull really did a low-fuel, qualifying-style lap. However, their pace was pretty promising (at least short runs, as some are suggesting that Red Bull had quicker long run pace than Ferrari too), and enough to suggest that they could challenge for the title although Sebastian Vettel did say they need more performance. Can Ferrari end their 10-year constructors' championship drought and have their first world champion since 2007, ironically current driver Kimi Raikkonen? If Ferrari step up reliability, and Sebastian Vettel controls his emotions better, then they definitely have a chance of doing so, however, it will be tough and Mercedes arguably start out as favourites for the crown, as suggested by Vettel himself, and overtaking them will require optimal execution. Red Bull Started 2017 poorly, due to issues with wind tunnel correlation which left them playing catch-up immediately, and when they get going and solved the problems (around Barcelona - round 5 in the season), it was arguably too late. For all that, however, they improved considerably during the season and arguably had the best development curve of the top 3 teams - to the point that they won 2 out of the last 6 races on merit through Max Verstappen, who in the process committed his future to the team till 2020. To counter their rather traditional slower starts of previous seasons, the team brought forward the launch of their car. Based on testing, it certainly seems to have paid off - they did more laps than ever before in a pre-season test (at least in the hybrid era), and they are definitely in a better position to challenge for the constructors' championship, the best since definitely the hybrid era began in 2014, with Daniel Ricciardo saying that the team is in the best shape that he has known. Speaking of Daniel Ricciardo, it is important that Red Bull give a car with championship-winning potential, given that he will be a free agent at the end of the year and Ferrari and Mercedes both have one of their drivers (Mercedes actually have 2, although it is likely that Hamilton will renew his contract) with their contracts expiring in 2018 too, thus Ricciardo will have options where to move. Can Red Bull win their first constructors' championship since 2013 and the first of the hybrid era, and give one of their drivers a first world championship title? It will be tough since firstly they face fierce competition from both Mercedes and Ferrari, and they are arguably constrained slightly by their Renault power unit. However, they have arguably one of the strongest (if not the strongest) driver pairings on the grid in Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen, and certainly are capable of winning races on merit this year arguably from the first race of the season in Melbourne.


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