
Having previewed the top 3 teams yesterday, we now will shift our focus onto the battle for fourth place - for which we have chosen to focus on two teams, Renault and McLaren. Admittedly last year Force India were the team who finished fourth, however, we feel that the two favourites this year are McLaren and Renault, though it would be very foolish to count them out.
Renault
During 2017 the team had a considerable development curve. They started the year in the lower reaches of the midfield, but you could argue that they ended the season with the fourth best car. One factor which arguably held them back last season was their driver line-up, as for the majority of the season they possessed only one points-scorer, however, when Carlos Sainz joined the team for the last four races of the season, there already was a clear step up (with all due respect to Jolyon Palmer), and his points scored in the USA (he should probably have scored points in Abu Dhabi too but for a pit crew error during his stop) were crucial in helping the team to get that sixth place from Toro Rosso.
Another factor which let them down as well was reliability. However, based on testing, it seems that the team have made a considerable step forward in reliability compared to last year, particularly regarding their engine, and to highlight this, they did a total of 795 laps during testing, and it would have certainly been more had they not encountered a gearbox issue on the final day (their only reliability issue during testing).
Can the team maintain their improvement and end up as best of the rest behind Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull? Can they lead one of their drivers to perhaps a first podium finish? The latter is less likely, however, they certainly have the resources and potential to do the former and possess a promising and strong line-up, and it is very arguable that they go into Melbourne as the fourth-best team.
McLaren
Last year was a disappointing year for the Woking-based team, with a 9th-placed finish (only Sauber finished below them) and just 30 points to their name. Last year they claimed they had one of the best chassis on the grid, suggesting it was on Red Bull's level. Now that is debatable, though you could certainly argue that they had one of the better chassis on the grid, however, what let them down was unreliability and a lack of power from their Honda engine. This year they have switched to Renault engines, which are probably better than Honda, so the pressure for McLaren to perform will be greater than before. During testing, however, they encountered several reliability issues - 5 on-track breakdowns, so could it be that the reliability issues they experienced with Honda have been partly McLaren's own fault? Despite all the breakdowns that they had, they did accumulate around 200 more laps in testing than last year (Zak Brown mentioned something like 800km more). It could be said that during testing they focused more than anyone you could say on short-runs, with low-fuel qualifying simulations principally, as well as put their focus on using the softer tyres. Seeing this, could you say that McLaren are doing this to 'hide' the possibility that their chassis is not as good as suggested? It may be perhaps be the case, though it would be wiser to wait until at least Melbourne to make such a judgement.
Can they make the improvement that they have talked up for some time? Can they maybe lead Fernando Alonso to claiming his first win since 2013 or his first podium since 2014? In order to do this, they need to address the reliability issues that they encountered during testing, if they do this then they certainly have a chance of finishing fourth and possibly even (albeit it would be ambitious to suggest this) challenge for third place and 'upset the establishment' (of Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull as the leading trio).